Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome early surprise package Hull City. With only four games played, both sides are still shaping their seasons, but the table already gives this fixture real weight.

Newcastle come into Matchday 5 sitting 12th with 5 points from 4 games. They have been entertaining but erratic, scoring 7 and conceding 8, and are still searching for a first home win despite being unbeaten on Tyneside so far. Hull City, meanwhile, have started superbly. Newly back in the top flight, they sit 4th on 8 points, unbeaten with 2 wins and 2 draws, and boasting the joint-second best defensive record in the division with just 2 goals conceded.

From a betting perspective, this is a classic contrast of market expectation versus early-season form. Bookmakers have installed Newcastle as clear favourites at St. James’ Park, but underlying stats and recent results suggest Hull City are more than capable of taking something from this game, making this a key fixture for punters assessing value in the Premier League.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

• Newcastle are 12th with 5 points from 4 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss), scoring 7 and conceding 8 in the Premier League standings.
• Across the last five meetings in all competitions, Newcastle have won three, Hull City two, with the most recent clash on 27 July 2024 ending Hull City 0-2 Newcastle in a club friendly.
• In current Premier League statistics, Newcastle average 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Hull City average 1.3 scored and just 0.5 conceded, with 3 clean sheets from 4 games.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 12 vs 4
• Points: 5 vs 8
• Goals For: 7 vs 5
• Goals Against: 8 vs 2
• Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

After four Premier League matches, Newcastle find themselves in mid-table, 12th in the standings. Their record of 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat reflects inconsistency: they have been solid away (one win, one loss) but have drawn both home games, scoring 4 and conceding 4 at St. James’ Park. A goal difference of -1 underlines the defensive issues that have offset their attacking output.

Hull City’s start has been far more controlled. Fourth place with 8 points and a goal difference of +3 shows a side that has quickly adapted to the division. They are unbeaten (2 wins, 2 draws), have yet to lose home or away, and their defensive record is outstanding: 0 goals conceded at home and only 2 away. With a balanced scoring profile (5 goals in 4 games) and a resilient back line, Hull arrive in the North East as one of the form sides in the early Premier League campaign.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

With limited attacking stats available for Newcastle, Yoane Wissa stands out as one of their key creative forces. The midfielder has featured in all 4 league games, starting each one and logging 351 minutes. He has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, taken 7 shots (2 on target), and created 4 key passes from 64 total passes at 68% accuracy. His high involvement in duels (61, with 27 won) and 11 fouls drawn underline his importance in progressing play and winning territorial battles.

For Hull City, Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi is emerging as a genuine difference-maker. The midfielder has 2 goals and 1 assist from 4 appearances (all starts), with 315 minutes on the pitch. He has taken 8 shots (3 on target), made 3 key passes from 48 total passes, and chipped in defensively with 10 tackles, 3 blocks and 9 interceptions. Belloumi’s rating of 7.22 reflects his all-round influence. This duel between Wissa’s driving runs and Belloumi’s two-way quality could tilt the midfield battle and, ultimately, the match outcome.

J. Murphy vs O. McBurnie

Jacob Murphy’s role for Newcastle has been more rotational, but his discipline profile is notable. Across 4 appearances (1 start, 92 minutes), he has collected 2 yellow cards, putting him among the league’s top carded players. With 15 duels (7 won) and 3 fouls drawn versus 2 committed, Murphy’s aggression on the flanks is a double-edged sword that Hull may look to exploit, especially in transition.

Oliver McBurnie leads the line for Hull City and is a central figure in their physical approach. The striker has started all 4 games, playing 352 minutes, providing 1 assist and taking 6 shots (3 on target). He is heavily involved in duels — 74 in total, with 36 won — and draws plenty of contact (9 fouls drawn, 5 committed). McBurnie also has 2 yellow cards and appears in both top yellow and top red card lists, underlining his combative style. His aerial presence against Newcastle’s back line and his ability to pin defenders will be crucial in allowing Belloumi and others to play off him.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two clubs have shared some lively contests over the past decade across league, cup and friendly fixtures. Recent history slightly favours Newcastle, but Hull have had their moments, especially away at St. James’ Park.

• 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
• 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
• 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
• 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 21 September 2013: Newcastle 2-3 Hull City (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles. Newcastle’s league form line of DWDL and 7 goals scored in 4 games point to an open, attack-minded side that both scores and concedes freely. Their home record — two draws with 4 goals for and 4 against — reinforces the sense that matches at St. James’ Park are high on incident but low on control.

Hull City arrive with a very different profile. Their recent form of WWDD, supported by a defensive index of 85 in recent metrics and 3 clean sheets from 4, shows a team built on structure and discipline. They concede just 0.5 goals per game and have not yet lost in the league. The comparison model gives Hull the edge in form (62 vs 38) and defence (80 vs 20), while Newcastle’s attack is rated slightly higher (58 vs 42). The prediction probabilities give Newcastle only a 10% chance to win, with 45% on the draw and 45% on a Hull victory, strongly favouring the visitors on a “win or draw” basis.

Given Newcastle’s attacking intent and Hull’s organisation, this shapes up as a tight, tactical contest. Newcastle will likely have more of the ball and shots, but Hull’s compact 5-4-1 structure and counter-attacking threat through Belloumi and McBurnie make them dangerous. With both teams’ league matches trending under 2.5 goals so far, a low-scoring draw or narrow away result feels most plausible.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form reads as a mixed bag. Over their last four league matches they have recorded one win, two draws and one defeat, reflecting inconsistency. They have been solid away with a win and a loss, but at home they have drawn both fixtures, scoring and conceding twice in each. Overall, 7 goals scored and 8 conceded in 4 games underline both their attacking potential and defensive vulnerability.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City’s recent form is one of the strongest in the division. They are unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches, with two consecutive wins followed by two draws. Defensively they have been outstanding, conceding only 2 goals in those 4 games and keeping 3 clean sheets. Their results include a 2-0 home win and a 0-1 away win, showing they can manage games effectively in different environments.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Murphy, J. Willock, H. Barnes; Forwards: Y. Wissa.

Newcastle’s squad profile and usage suggest a 4-2-3-1 or similar shape, which they have favoured in early-season statistics. Nick Pope offers experience in goal, with Sven Botman and Dan Burn likely to anchor the back line, supported by attacking full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. In midfield, the physical presence of Joelinton and the technical ability of Nico González can provide balance, while Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes add width. Joe Willock’s energy between the lines and Yoane Wissa’s work rate and end product in the final third give Newcastle multiple attacking angles, but the key challenge will be maintaining defensive structure against Hull’s counters.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, J. Egan, S. Ajayi, C. Hughes, R. Giles; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, M. Belloumi; Forwards: O. McBurnie, J. Gelhardt.

Hull City’s statistics indicate a preference for a 5-4-1 base, built on a strong defensive core. Jack Butland provides stability in goal, with a back five likely featuring experienced defenders such as L. Coyle, John Egan and Semi Ajayi, plus youthful energy from C. Hughes and R. Giles in the wing-back roles. In midfield, Hidemasa Morita and Eliot Matazo can screen the defence, allowing M. Belloumi to operate as the advanced playmaker, linking midfield to attack. Up front, O. McBurnie’s physical presence as a target man, supported by a mobile forward like Joe Gelhardt, offers a clear outlet for long balls and crosses, making Hull dangerous on set plays and in transition.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

• None reported.

Hull City:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). Prediction probabilities give Newcastle only about a 10% chance to win, with Hull City and the draw each at 45%. Hull are unbeaten (WWDD) with just 2 goals conceded, while Newcastle have been inconsistent and leaky at the back. Despite this, bookmakers price Newcastle as clear favourites at around 1.53–1.63 (implied 61.3–65.4%), with Hull City out at 4.76–5.49 (18.2–21.0%) and the draw 3.84–4.52 (22.1–26.0%). The mismatch between the implied odds and the underlying form makes a double chance on Hull or Draw an attractive angle, especially for accumulator builders.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Both sides’ early Premier League stats lean towards lower-scoring games: Newcastle average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, but their under/over splits show all four matches staying under 2.5 and under 3.5 goals. Hull City average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded, with all four of their league games also under 2.5 and under 3.5. Hull’s strong defensive structure and Newcastle’s recent trend of tight home draws point to a cagey contest, making under 2.5 goals a logical play if competitively priced by bookmakers.
• Value Tip: M. Belloumi to Score or Assist. Hull City’s creative hub has 2 goals and 1 assist from 4 appearances, with 8 shots (3 on target) and 3 key passes. His all-round involvement in both shooting and chance creation makes him a prime candidate to contribute directly to a goal. With market focus likely to skew towards Newcastle’s forwards due to their favourite status, Belloumi-related player props (anytime scorer or goal/assist combo) could offer value at longer odds relative to his actual attacking output.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.