Liam Lawson's Uncertain Future in Formula 1

Liam Lawson’s Formula 1 future is turning into one of the defining storylines of the 2026 driver market. Not because he’s out of a job, but because no one can quite agree what his ceiling really is.

On paper, the grid looks relatively settled. Thirteen drivers are already locked in for 2026, and most of the remaining nine are widely expected to stay put. Stability is the theme almost everywhere.

Almost.

Red Bull, as ever, are the exception. Across their four seats – two at the senior team and two at Racing Bulls – only Max Verstappen is formally secured. The rest is rumour, pressure, and politics dressed up as planning.

Red Bull’s puzzle: one certainty, three question marks

Behind the scenes, the picture is clearer than the contracts suggest. GPblog understands that Red Bull are leaning towards continuity: Isack Hadjar alongside Verstappen in the senior team, with Lawson staying at Racing Bulls next to Arvid Lindblad.

It is a logical structure. Verstappen as the reference. A highly rated rookie in Hadjar. A proven stand-in in Lawson. A rising star in Lindblad. On a whiteboard, it works.

On track, the debate refuses to die.

Lawson has spent the last three Grands Prix subbing for the injured Hadjar. He has scored points, handled pressure, and stayed largely out of trouble. Seventh in Zandvoort, 14th at Monza after contact, sixth in Madrid. Respectable numbers. Solid returns.

For some, solid is not enough.

Rosberg lays down the Red Bull standard

Nico Rosberg, never shy of a strong opinion, cut straight to the point on Sky F1. Red Bull, he argued, are not in the market for “solid”.

"They're looking for the next Max Verstappen and the next Sebastian Vettel," he said. In that context, he suggested, anything short of that level simply does not meet the bar.

So where does that leave Lawson?

"At the moment, I'm not sure that Liam Lawson would be considered at that level with what he's been producing so far," Rosberg added, while pointing out that Lindblad and Hadjar remain very much in the long-term conversation.

It was a sharp reminder of the brutal standard that has defined Red Bull’s driver philosophy for more than a decade: world champions or bust.

Mekies pushes back

Inside the Red Bull camp, the tone is very different.

Laurent Mekies, Red Bull team principal and CEO, has been far more generous in his assessment of Lawson’s stint. He has seen a driver thrown into a different car, at short notice, in the thick of a tightly packed midfield – and coping.

"I think he's done a very good job," Mekies said, stressing the difficulty of jumping into a new team and machinery mid-season. In his eyes, Lawson has met – and perhaps exceeded – what Red Bull could reasonably have expected.

The results back up that view. Sixth in Madrid, important points under pressure. Seventh at Zandvoort. And in Monza, Mekies argued, Lawson was on course for something similar before contact with Nico Hülkenberg and front wing damage ruined the afternoon.

"So, I think he did a very good job," Mekies concluded, noting how different this version of Lawson looks compared to his early 2025 outings with the team. The message was clear: progress, resilience, reliability.

A new Red Bull, a different kind of chance?

Rosberg’s criticism carries weight. He is a world champion, a sharp analyst, and a voice that still resonates in the paddock. His view reflects the old Red Bull image: a ruthless machine run under Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, where patience was a luxury and young drivers lived on borrowed time.

This, though, is not quite that Red Bull.

The structure has shifted. The tone from the top has softened. The system looks more like a long-term programme than a conveyor belt with a trapdoor. That change could be crucial for Lawson.

He may not yet look like the “next Verstappen” or “next Vettel”. Few do. What he does look like is a driver who adapts quickly, scores when the opportunity appears, and learns from the bruises rather than breaking under them.

In the old era, that might not have been enough. In this new one, it might just buy him the one thing young Red Bull drivers almost never used to get: time to prove he belongs as a full-time F1 fixture.