Champions League 2024: PSG's Three-Peat Dream and Main Contenders

The Champions League is back. Madrid, 5 June next year, is the destination. The question is the same as ever: who dares think they’ll be the ones lifting that trophy?

Paris St-Germain are chasing history, hunting a third consecutive crown as the new league phase kicks off on Tuesday. Everyone else is hunting them. Five English clubs line up as the main resistance, with Arsenal carrying the weight of expectation after last season’s near miss.

The giants are circling, the numbers are pointing, and the experts are split.

PSG’s three‑peat dream – and its limits

If PSG complete the three‑peat, it would rank among the great feats of the modern era. Julien Laurens doesn’t see it.

“Two in a row is already special – three in a row is impossible unless you've got Cristiano Ronaldo in your team, which they don't,” he argues.

He still expects them to be deep in the competition, at least a semi-final side, but sees the wall coming eventually. The grind of staying at the summit, season after season, is brutal.

Guillem Balague looks at the same team and sees a different kind of challenge. An “irregular” start to the season has exposed how hard it is to maintain the level while Luis Enrique keeps pushing a high-risk, high-energy style. The league phase, he believes, will double as a laboratory: experiments, tactical tweaks, and the odd strange result before the real edge returns from January onwards.

The structure is there, the core is strong, and Balague still expects PSG to get “very close” to winning it again. Close, though, is not the same as immortal.

Arsenal, Bayern, Real, City – the main contenders

If PSG don’t finish the job, who does?

Laurens puts his faith in Arsenal and Bayern Munich. He sees them, alongside PSG, as the teams who have most consistently earned the right to be in the latter stages over the past two seasons. His final? Bayern versus Arsenal.

His winner? Arsenal.

For him, the logic is simple: “They have the best defence in Europe by far and that's what wins you titles.” In his bracket, PSG fall in the last four, Bayern come up just short, and Arsenal finally step over the line they fell just short of last time.

Balague also has Arsenal in the inner circle. He sees a team that has learned how to win regularly, shed a psychological weight, and found a new freedom in their play. With that burden gone, he expects the football to flow more naturally, the performances to rise.

Barcelona, though, are his other great climbers. Under Hansi Flick, they are “flying”. Flick still wants another centre-back and a number nine to hit the absolute peak, but he senses they are already on the road to the top. The idea is clear: a team defending high, with intensity, allowing their young stars to shine.

Balague’s semi-final picture has three near-certainties: PSG, Arsenal, Barcelona – unless the draw throws them together early. The fourth slot, draw permitting, will be a fight between Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Manchester City. Three heavyweight clubs, one last ticket.

Laurens, for his part, is not sold on the Jose Mourinho–Real Madrid project. He respects the platform Jude Bellingham has, but doesn’t yet see a fully convincing machine. That doubt nudges Real out of his final and opens the door wider for Bayern and Arsenal.

The players who could shape Europe

The Champions League rarely belongs to systems alone. It bends, in the end, to players who seize nights and twist them their way.

Laurens picks five to watch.

Jude Bellingham stands first in line. Operating as a number 10 under Mourinho, in a role Laurens believes suits him perfectly, this season feels huge – for the player and for Real Madrid. Bellingham comes off a strong World Cup, and Laurens expects that momentum to roll on: goals, authority, decisive moments.

From the glamour of Madrid to the surprise of Como. Their number 10, Nico Paz, runs the game for Cesc Fabregas’ side. It is Como’s first Champions League campaign and they play like a team determined to enjoy it. Paz, still a work in progress, is at the heart of their football and tipped to become a top player sooner rather than later.

Then there is “Mr Champions League” himself in Laurens’ list: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Two electric seasons at PSG have turned him into a superstar of the left flank. Cut inside, go outside, score with either foot – he can do the lot. The technical quality is obvious, but it’s the sense of danger every time he receives the ball that has Laurens talking about him as a Ballon d’Or contender. He’s the one who gets people on the edge of the sofa.

Lens return to the Champions League after pushing PSG all the way in Ligue 1 last season, and Ismaelo Ganiou is, in Laurens’ view, arguably their best player. A 21-year-old centre-back, strong, quick, comfortable on the ball, he looks built for the modern game. Laurens expects a Premier League move at the end of the campaign.

The fifth name is Donyell Malen. Since leaving Aston Villa for Roma, he has exploded under Gian Piero Gasperini, scoring at close to a goal per game as a lone striker. Roma are back in the Champions League, back entertaining, and Laurens believes this season can show Malen at his very best again.

Balague’s list overlaps in star power but takes its own path.

Harry Kane, leading the line for Bayern, is in what Balague calls a Ballon d’Or campaign. The fit between player and club is almost seamless. He doesn’t expect Kane’s level to drop; Bayern’s style suits his movement, finishing and intelligence too well.

Lamine Yamal, still a teenager, is already hungry for more. He has set his sights on the Champions League, and Flick’s high, aggressive defensive line is designed to create the chaos in which he can thrive. If Barcelona go deep, Yamal will not be a passenger.

Kvaratskhelia appears again. Balague sees another level in him yet, and with PSG likely to go far, he expects the Georgian to rescue them in big games, to turn tight nights their way. For Balague, it is only a matter of time before Kvaratskhelia wins the Ballon d’Or.

Shakhtar’s conveyor belt of Brazilian talent has long been one of European football’s most reliable storylines. Kaua Elias, 20, could be the next major export. Balague places him firmly in that tradition: a player who might use this competition as a launchpad to a huge move.

Then there is Martin Odegaard. After an injury-hit campaign last season, the Arsenal captain has started this one strongly. Balague sees a player ready to dominate games again, at the heart of a more confident side that will need his leadership when the pressure spikes.

New faces, bold ideas and outsiders

The Champions League always finds room for fresh stories.

Fabregas’ Como are one of them. Balague admires what the former Arsenal and Barcelona midfielder is building and the fact he stayed despite attractive offers elsewhere. The lack of suffocating pressure gives Fabregas room to experiment, to refine his ideas. He has, in Balague’s words, “swum against the tide” and now stands right at the front of modern football’s tactical train. The expectation? A place in the knock-out stages.

LASK earned their spot the hard way, getting past Celtic and showing a fierce competitive edge. Their first Champions League campaign will be about moments: a home win somewhere, a respectable points total, a sense that they belong at this level. Qualification looks unlikely, but respect is there to be won.

Sabah, from Azerbaijan, arrive with a reputation built on organisation. The draw, though, is unforgiving: trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, home games against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund. Balague still expects them to spring one or two surprises, but not enough to survive the league phase.

Then there is Viking. Their group is brutal – Bayern, Atletico, Napoli, Aston Villa – yet Balague points to a deeper truth about Norwegian football: clever coaches, competitive teams, and players who do not shrink from a challenge. Viking will not be favourites, but they might be dangerous. Balague believes they could make it to the knock-outs.

The road to Madrid is long and unforgiving. PSG chase a dynasty, Arsenal chase redemption, Barcelona and Bayern chase validation of new and old ideas. Somewhere among them, a new star will grab the spotlight, a smaller club will refuse to read the script, and one team will walk out at the Bernabéu in June knowing they are 90 minutes from immortality.

Who dares say it will be them?