US Open 2026 Preview: Sabalenka, Djokovic, and American Hopes

Aryna Sabalenka walks into New York chasing history and fighting for survival at the very top of the women’s game. Novak Djokovic arrives staring at a brutal road toward immortality. And on the men’s side, for the first time in years, the draw feels like a door left slightly ajar.

The US Open is back, and the script is anything but straightforward.

Sabalenka’s three‑peat bid under real pressure

Back‑to‑back champion Aryna Sabalenka is trying to do something only Serena Williams has managed in the Open era: win three straight US Open titles. Serena owned New York from 2012 to 2014. Sabalenka now stands on the brink of her own empire run.

But this isn’t the Sabalenka who steamrolled draws at her peak. By her standards, 2026 has been lean. No Grand Slam titles this year. The aura has flickered. Her long stay as World No. 1 – closing in on 100 weeks – is suddenly under threat.

Elena Rybakina, No. 2 in the rankings, is close enough to see the top spot. Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff lurk just behind. For Sabalenka, the US Open is no longer just about the trophy; it’s about keeping her grip on the throne.

The draw does her no favors. A possible third‑round meeting with No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova, then No. 15 Diana Shnaider in the fourth round, and No. 6 Linda Noskova – the 2026 Wimbledon champion – in the quarterfinals. That’s a gauntlet, not a coronation march.

Sabalenka has chased a three‑peat before. At the 2025 Australian Open, Rybakina stopped her cold. The stakes in New York are clear: win, and she writes herself deeper into history. Stumble, and the No. 1 ranking could be gone by the time the lights go out in Queens.

Rybakina’s opening – and her Achilles question

If anyone can rip the No. 1 ranking out of Sabalenka’s hands in New York, it’s Elena Rybakina. The math is simple: reach the semifinals, and she becomes World No. 1 for the first time in her career.

The problem sits in her ankle.

Achilles soreness forced a scare in Cincinnati, and Rybakina still hasn’t confirmed she’ll even play. It’s a cruel twist for a two‑time Grand Slam champion staring at the biggest ranking opportunity of her life.

The draw, at least early, is kind. She opens against Thea Frodin, then likely faces Darja Vidmanova in the second round. Two matches to test the ankle, two matches to find rhythm, if she’s fit enough to step on court.

After that, the temperature rises sharply. A potential third round against Maria Sakkari. A possible fourth‑round clash with two‑time US Open champion Naomi Osaka. Then a projected quarterfinal against former World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, who beat her in the Canadian Open final earlier this month.

Rybakina has never been beyond the fourth round in New York. This time, the path to both a breakthrough run and the top ranking lies directly through her fitness.

Wide‑open men’s field as Sinner sits, Alcaraz returns

On the men’s side, the draw feels looser than it has in years.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, a defining force at the majors, is out injured. Carlos Alcaraz, who has not played singles for almost four months, returns as a question mark rather than a certainty. Between them, Sinner and Alcaraz have claimed three of the last four US Open titles. Remove Sinner and dilute Alcaraz’s preparation, and the entire tournament breathes differently.

That vacuum opens the door for a pack that has waited two decades for its moment.

American men smell opportunity

The drought is the drumbeat every August: no American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. Twenty‑plus years. A generation.

This year, the storyline doesn’t feel forced.

Six American men sit inside the world’s Top 25: Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21). They’re not just ranked; they’re winning.

Fritz lifted a hard‑court title in Washington, D.C. Shelton did the same in Montreal. Nakashima and Tiafoe reached finals in Montreal and Cincinnati, respectively. The hard‑court form is there, the confidence is real, and the men’s field – without a fully fit Sinner and with a rusty Alcaraz – looks more open than at any point in their careers.

The question that has hung over American men’s tennis for years now has genuine teeth: can one of them finally break through in New York?

Pegula’s clean shot at a first major

Jessica Pegula has made her intentions public: “My goal is to win the tournament,” she told USA TODAY Sports. The draw gives her a genuine chance to back that up.

She opens against Elena‑Gabriela Ruse, then gets the winner of Venus Williams vs. Sofia Kenin – a first‑round match heavy on storylines and history. From there, the road remains manageable, at least on paper.

A possible third‑round meeting with No. 31 Leylah Fernandez, then likely No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, a player Pegula leads 3–1 head‑to‑head. The real tests start in the quarterfinals, where No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina could be waiting.

If Pegula reaches the semifinals, she may well run into Sabalenka again. Sabalenka beat her in the 2024 US Open final in straight sets, and also knocked her out in last year’s semifinals. For Pegula, this draw offers both opportunity and a shot at personal revenge.

First‑round fireworks

The tournament won’t need time to warm up. The opening round delivers intrigue immediately.

On the men’s side, No. 10 seed Arthur Fils takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas in a clash that feels more like a second week match than an opener. Fils arrives with momentum after winning his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, where he took out Frances Tiafoe in three sets in the final. Tsitsipas, by contrast, hasn’t reached the third round at any major this year, yet remains a dangerous figure with two Grand Slam finals on his résumé (2021 French Open, 2023 Australian Open).

In the women’s draw, No. 20 Maja Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, meets American Taylor Townsend. Townsend has a habit of catching fire in New York; she’s twice reached the fourth round at the US Open, including last year. It’s the kind of match that can ignite a section of the draw and the crowd with it.

Djokovic’s brutal road to 25

Novak Djokovic has chased history for so long that the numbers barely sound real anymore. One more major, and he reaches 25 Grand Slam titles, breaking the all‑time record for men or women.

The draw, though, is unforgiving.

He starts with a first‑ever meeting against Mariano Navone. From there, the names stack up quickly: a possible second‑round clash with Matteo Berrettini, the 2021 Wimbledon finalist, or three‑time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka. In the third round, No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry looms. The fourth round could bring No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev.

If Djokovic survives that stretch, No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion, could be waiting in the quarterfinals. The semifinals might deliver No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils. And if the 39‑year‑old reaches the final, the top seed, No. 1 Alexander Zverev, sits at the end of the road.

It’s a path worthy of the record he’s chasing. Whether his body and legs can handle that kind of grind over two weeks in New York is the question that will shadow every match he plays.

Gauff’s minefield of a draw

Coco Gauff arrives as the newly crowned 2026 Cincinnati Open champion. Calling her a “loser” from the draw feels harsh, but the bracket in front of her is one of the most treacherous in the field.

Her second round could bring Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina. Neither is seeded, both are dangerous. Both have lived in the Top 10 before. Badosa also beat Gauff on grass in Berlin in June, a recent reminder of the threat she poses.

The third round could set up a rematch with No. 28 Sara Bejlek, who Gauff handled 6–4, 6–1 in the Cincinnati semifinals last week. In the fourth round, No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala could stand in her way.

If Gauff reaches a third US Open quarterfinal, the names get bigger. No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the 2026 French Open champion, is a likely opponent. Gauff leads their head‑to‑head 5–0, including a clay‑court win in the Italian Open quarterfinals in May, just before Andreeva lifted the French Open trophy. On hard courts, they’ve met once – Gauff won 6–3, 6–2 in the second round of the 2023 US Open.

There’s also the possibility of an all‑American showdown with No. 10 Amanda Anisimova in the quarters. Anisimova, last year’s US Open finalist, leads their rivalry 2–1.

Get through all that, and the semifinals may bring No. 2 Rybakina or No. 8 Swiatek. Rybakina owns the Australian Open crown this year and has a Wimbledon title from 2022. Swiatek is a six‑time major winner, a former 125‑week No. 1, and the 2022 US Open champion.

Gauff’s form says she’s ready. Her draw demands she prove it every single round.

Tiafoe’s gamble and New York love affair

Frances Tiafoe has always played his best tennis under the lights of Arthur Ashe. Two of his Grand Slam semifinal runs (2022, 2024) came here, fueled by the New York crowd and his own flair for the big stage.

This time, he comes in banged up and defiant.

Earlier this month, Tiafoe underwent surgery to remove a cyst on his right hand. Days later, against medical advice, he stepped onto the courts in Cincinnati. “They didn’t actually want me to play here ... but obviously every athlete’s stubborn,” he admitted after reaching the semifinals. He went on to the final, where Fils beat him 6–3, 1–6, 6–0. Tiafoe took a medical timeout in that match and later withdrew from the US Open mixed doubles event, prompting real concern about his status in singles.

The draw offers him a soft landing, at least to start. He opens against fellow American Martin Damm Jr., then could face Aleksandar Vukic in the second round. He owns the head‑to‑head against both.

From there, the mountain rises. A likely fourth‑round clash with No. 7 Medvedev. A potential quarterfinal against No. 4 Djokovic. A possible semifinal against No. 2 Alcaraz.

If Tiafoe’s hand holds up, his game and his connection with New York could carry him deep. If not, his brave decision to play may come at a cost.

Venus Williams, one more time under the lights

Serena Williams lit up the mixed doubles event with Carlos Alcaraz, surging to a quarterfinal run that reminded everyone of her enduring magnetism. Now, the spotlight swings to her sister.

Venus Williams, 46 years old, walks into her 26th US Open with a wild card and a brutal first test. She faces Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion, on a hard court she knows well.

Venus has not had much success in singles recently. She lost in the first round at last year’s US Open and again at the Australian Open this year. The draw doesn’t ease her back in; it throws her straight into the deep end.

Still, there is something undeniably powerful about seeing her name in the main draw again. One of the sport’s great pioneers, back where so much of her story was written, taking another swing.

The stage is set: Sabalenka chasing Serena’s shadow and clinging to No. 1, Rybakina eyeing her first taste of the summit, Djokovic staring down the harshest of roads to 25, American men circling their best shot in years, Gauff and Pegula trying to turn promise into hardware, and Venus Williams stepping into Flushing Meadows once more.

In a year where the usual certainties have cracked, who will own New York when the last ball is struck?