US Open 2023 Preview: Sabalenka, Gauff, and Pegula in the Spotlight

The last major of the year has always had a taste for chaos. This one might redefine it.

When the US Open singles draw begins Sunday in Flushing Meadows, the storylines stretch well beyond the usual chase for a hard‑court crown. Rankings are on the line. Reputations, too. And with Serena Williams appearing only in doubles, a new wave steps fully into the glare.

At the front of it: Aryna Sabalenka, two-time defending champion in New York and the No. 1 seed, trying to hang on to the top WTA ranking with a pack of rivals closing fast.

Sabalenka under siege, Americans circling

Sabalenka enters as the standard-bearer, but her grip on No. 1 is anything but secure. Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all have mathematical paths to the summit depending on how deep they go.

The field is stacked. The predictions, anything but cautious.

USA TODAY’s panel sees an American surge coming on the women’s side. All three writers — Scooby Axson, Cydney Henderson and Danielle Lerner — forecast Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula powering into the semifinals, riding the same blistering form that took them to the Cincinnati Open final last week.

From there, the paths split, but only slightly.

Axson has Gauff meeting Iga Swiatek in one semifinal, a clash of power and athleticism against a five-time Grand Slam champion. He pins that match on one shot: Gauff’s serve. If it holds up, he sees the American knocking out Swiatek and marching into the final.

On the other side, Axson sends Pegula against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, the latest star from Czechia’s deep talent pool. Noskova’s grass-court breakthrough impressed him, but not enough to derail Pegula. He calls Pegula in straight sets and into a second US Open final.

Henderson’s bracket looks familiar at the top: Gauff and Pegula again, both into the last four. The difference lies in their opponents. She also pits Gauff against Swiatek, but with a twist — an injured Elena Rybakina exits earlier, undone by Achilles soreness that may not even let her reach the quarterfinals. Pegula, in Henderson’s view, draws Sabalenka in a high-stakes semifinal. With Sabalenka under pressure to defend both her title and her ranking, Henderson expects that weight to crack the Belarusian’s composure and open the door for Pegula.

Lerner echoes the American charge. Gauff and Pegula, both “impeccable” in recent weeks, again populate the semis in her draw. She also has Gauff facing Swiatek, while Pegula runs into Noskova, whose Wimbledon run showcased real resilience. Like the others, Lerner effectively writes Rybakina out of the late stages after her Cincinnati retirement with an Achilles issue. Sabalenka, she argues, has looked mentally fragile against lesser opponents and doesn’t survive to the final weekend.

The consensus? An American will be standing on the final Sunday.

Axson and Henderson both go all-in on an all‑U.S. final: Pegula vs. Gauff, a Cincinnati rematch on the sport’s biggest American stage. Axson pushes Pegula over the line, envisioning Buffalo celebrating as she claims her first US Open title and climbs to No. 1 in the world.

Henderson and Lerner side with Gauff. They lean on her form — a six-match win streak into New York and a decisive Cincinnati title — and the sense that her momentum has hardened into something more permanent. Lerner projects Gauff serving big and bullying her way to a third Grand Slam trophy and a second US Open crown before her 23rd birthday.

Sabalenka may be the top seed. The predictions read like a changing of the guard.

A men’s draw without Sinner, and a door wide open

On the men’s side, the picture is even murkier.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury. Carlos Alcaraz returns from a four‑month layoff. Alexander Zverev arrives as the top seed and newly crowned French Open champion, hunting a second major. Novak Djokovic, the No. 4 seed, is still chasing that record-extending 25th Grand Slam title. Felix Auger-Aliassime, seeded third, is still searching for his first major final.

The result is a rare feeling at a men’s Slam: genuine uncertainty.

Axson sees the tournament as tailor-made for Taylor Fritz to finally break through — but only to a point. He has the American running into Zverev in the semifinals and falling short yet again against the German, whose game has long thrived on hard courts.

On the other half, Axson issues a familiar warning: write off Djokovic at your peril. He has the Serb grinding through the draw for another deep run, only to run into someone with fresher legs and fewer miles — 22-year-old Frenchman Arthur Fils. In Axson’s bracket, Fils not only stops Djokovic; he rides that surge all the way to the title, extending the “new big three” narrative alongside Alcaraz and Sinner.

Henderson leans into the sense of opportunity for the American men, who have worn the weight of a decades-long US Open title drought. With Sinner sidelined and Alcaraz just back from injury, she expects the home players to sense their chance.

Her pick to seize it: Ben Shelton.

Shelton’s hard-court swing has been streaky — a title in Montreal followed by an early exit in Cincinnati — but Henderson sees New York waking him up. She sends him to a semifinal showdown with Djokovic, a collision between youthful explosiveness and generational experience. On the other side, she backs Zverev to navigate his way past Auger-Aliassime into the final.

From there, Henderson goes bold. She projects Shelton to experience “many firsts” in Queens: first US Open final, first Grand Slam trophy, all on home soil.

Lerner takes a different route through the chaos. To her, this is one of the most unpredictable US Opens in recent memory, yet she still trusts the sport’s biggest names to find each other in the latter rounds.

Despite Alcaraz’s limited preparation and Djokovic’s recent run of early hard‑court exits, Lerner has them colliding in a blockbuster semifinal. Before that, she points to a potential quarterfinal between Alcaraz and Shelton as one of the matches of the tournament.

On the other side of the draw, Lerner backs Fritz to justify his top‑10 seeding and push into the last four, where Zverev again stands in the way. Her final pits Djokovic against Fritz, a classic generational clash on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Sabalenka defending a throne. Gauff and Pegula chasing it. Zverev trying to validate his Roland Garros breakthrough. Djokovic refusing to fade. A wave of young challengers — Gauff, Shelton, Fils, Noskova — sensing that this might be their moment, or their next one.

New York rarely does script. With rankings, legacies and a wide‑open men’s field all colliding over two weeks in Queens, who walks out of Flushing Meadows with the sport in their hands?