Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction: Key Stats, Lineups, and Betting Tips

Newcastle welcome Bournemouth to St. James' Park on 5 September 2026 in Premier League Regular Season - 3, with both sides looking to shape the early narrative of their campaigns. The Magpies have started brightly and arrive unbeaten, while Bournemouth are still searching for their first win of the season.

With Newcastle sitting in the top six and Bournemouth in the bottom half, this fixture already carries weight for the race for European spots and the battle to stay clear of the relegation picture. The matchup also has added intrigue given Bournemouth’s recent strong record at St. James' Park, making this one of the more compelling Premier League predictions for the weekend.

St. James' Park has seen some high-scoring and dramatic encounters between these two in recent years, and with both teams averaging at least one goal per game so far, betting tips around goals and result markets will attract plenty of interest from punters.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Key Stats

• Newcastle are 6th in the Premier League with 4 points from 2 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 2.
• The last meeting at St. James' Park on 18 April 2026 ended Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth in the Premier League.
• Newcastle have scored an average of 2.0 goals per game across their 2 league fixtures this season, while Bournemouth have averaged 1.0.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 14
• Points: 4 vs 1
• Goals For: 4 vs 2
• Goals Against: 2 vs 3
• Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Bournemouth 0 (tournament statistics)

After two rounds, Newcastle have made a solid start: one win and one draw, with a +2 goal difference. They have been especially efficient in attack, hitting 4 goals in 2 matches, and already recording one clean sheet away from home. Their early form (DW) underlines a side that is difficult to beat and capable of controlling games.

Bournemouth, by contrast, sit 14th with just 1 point from 2 matches (LD). They have scored twice but conceded three, and are yet to keep a clean sheet. While it is very early in the campaign, the numbers suggest Newcastle are more balanced at both ends of the pitch, whereas Bournemouth are still looking for defensive stability, particularly late in games where all three of their goals conceded have come between the 76th and 90th minute.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Key Matchups

A. Elanga vs Evanilson

Anthony Elanga has been Newcastle’s standout attacking threat so far. In 2 appearances (both as a starter) he has scored 2 goals in 158 minutes, with 4 shots and 3 on target, and carries a strong average rating of 7.75. His dribbling (2 successful from 3 attempts) and ability to draw fouls (4 won) make him a constant danger between the lines and in transition.

For Bournemouth, Evanilson has been the creative focal point. In 2 starts and 156 minutes, he has delivered 2 assists and created 3 key passes from 36 total passes at 75% accuracy. He also contributes defensively with 4 interceptions and 1 tackle, showing his work rate in the press. This duel pits Elanga’s direct goal threat against Evanilson’s playmaking and link-up play; whichever player imposes himself more could tilt the balance of the game.

Y. Wissa vs Bournemouth back line

Yoane Wissa has been a complete all-rounder for Newcastle. In 2 appearances and 171 minutes, he has 1 goal and 1 assist, with 6 shots (2 on target) and 2 key passes. His duel numbers are impressive — 18 duels won from 32 — and he has drawn 8 fouls, underlining how difficult he is to handle physically. Coming from midfield or wide areas, his movement between Bournemouth’s lines will test a defence that has conceded 3 goals in 2 games and has yet to keep a clean sheet.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has been tight and often high-scoring in recent seasons, with Bournemouth enjoying some notable results both home and away. Newcastle have struggled to dominate this matchup despite often being the higher-ranked side.

• 18 April 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
• 10 January 2026: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth (FA Cup, Newcastle won 7-6 on penalties)
• 21 September 2025: Bournemouth 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 18 January 2025: Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth (Premier League)
• 25 August 2024: Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Stats suggest a relatively even contest on paper, but with a clear edge towards Newcastle. The prediction model gives Newcastle a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and Bournemouth just 10%. That aligns with the early-season form: Newcastle unbeaten with 4 goals scored, Bournemouth winless and conceding late goals.

Newcastle’s attack has started strongly, averaging 2.0 goals per game, and they have yet to fail to score. Bournemouth average 1.0 goal per match and have shown resilience going forward, but their late-game defensive lapses are a concern — all 3 goals conceded have come in the final quarter-hour. Head-to-head history, however, warns against complacency: Bournemouth have taken some big results at St. James' Park, including a 4-1 win in January 2025 and a 2-1 victory in April 2026.

Given the strong double-chance angle towards Newcastle or draw and the bookmakers making the hosts clear favourites, the most likely pattern is Newcastle controlling possession and territory, with Bournemouth dangerous on counters through players like Evanilson and J. Kluivert. A tight, competitive match feels probable, but Newcastle’s superior balance and home advantage should tell.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent form in the Premier League is positive with one win and one draw from their opening two matches. They have scored 4 goals and conceded 2, including a clean sheet away from home. Their attack has been consistent, scoring in both fixtures, and they have shown the ability to respond after setbacks, underlined by their unbeaten start.

Bournemouth Recent Form

Bournemouth’s recent Premier League form is more mixed, with one draw and one defeat from two matches. They have scored 2 goals and conceded 3, and are still looking for a first clean sheet. The late goals conceded between minutes 76 and 90 highlight a vulnerability in closing out games, something that could be exposed at St. James' Park if they are forced to defend deep for long spells.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, F. Schär, T. Livramento or L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Ramsey, J. Murphy; Forwards: A. Elanga, Y. Wissa, H. Barnes or N. Woltemade.

Newcastle have the squad depth to maintain their high-intensity 4-2-3-1 shape, as indicated by their typical formation usage. With Elanga and Wissa in excellent early-season form, the front line looks dangerous. Creative midfield options like Willock and Joelinton add late runs into the box, while wide players such as Murphy and Barnes provide width and crossing threat. Defensively, the presence of Botman and Schär gives solidity, though Newcastle will be wary of Bournemouth’s counter-attacking potential.

Bournemouth Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Di Gregorio or Đ. Petrović; Defenders: M. Aarons, Antònio Silva, B. Diakité, A. Truffert; Midfielders: T. Adams, L. Cook, R. Christie, M. Tavernier, A. Scott; Forwards: Evanilson, J. Kluivert or B. Doak.

Bournemouth have also leaned on a 4-2-3-1 structure, with Evanilson central to their attacking play as a focal point and creator. Support from wide forwards like Kluivert or Doak offers pace on the break, while midfielders such as Cook and Adams provide balance between defensive cover and ball progression. The key question is whether their back four can withstand sustained Newcastle pressure, especially in the closing stages where they have been most vulnerable.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Bournemouth Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

• None reported.

Bournemouth:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Newcastle to win. The prediction model gives Newcastle a 45% chance of victory and only 10% for Bournemouth, with the draw also at 45%. Newcastle are unbeaten (DW) and have scored twice as many goals as Bournemouth so far. Market odds on a home win range from 2.10 to 2.22, implying an approximate probability between 45.0% (1 ÷ 2.22 × 100) and 47.6% (1 ÷ 2.10 × 100). That aligns closely with the model edge towards the hosts.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Newcastle’s matches have averaged 3.0 goals (4 scored, 2 conceded in 2 games), while Bournemouth’s average is 2.5 (2 scored, 3 conceded). Recent head-to-heads at St. James' Park have produced scorelines like 1-4, 1-2, and 2-2, suggesting an open contest. While specific over/under odds are not listed here, combining both teams’ early-season scoring rates makes over 1.5 goals a strong candidate.
• Value Tip: Newcastle to score first. Newcastle have scored in both of their league matches and possess in-form attackers in A. Elanga (2 goals) and Y. Wissa (1 goal, 1 assist). Bournemouth have conceded all three of their goals in the final quarter-hour, indicating periods of defensive instability. With home win odds in the 2.10–2.22 range and Bournemouth priced between 2.75 and 3.23 for the upset, markets clearly rate Newcastle’s attacking edge; backing them to strike first offers a logical value angle built on their superior offensive numbers.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.