Jamal Murray's Role in Denver Nuggets' Title Aspirations

Nikola Jokic is inching toward the back half of his prime, and Denver knows it. The Nuggets’ title window isn’t slamming shut yet, but the hinges are creaking. How wide it stays open in 2026-27 will be decided, as it so often is, by Jamal Murray.

The franchise has seen the version of Murray that swings a playoff series, the one who runs shoulder to shoulder with Jokic as a co-star rather than a sidekick. Projections for next season suggest that player is still very much there. The twist? He may have to change the way he dominates.

A leaner shot diet, a different kind of punch

Denver’s offensive problem last season wasn’t accuracy. It was appetite.

The Nuggets took just 87.8 field goals per game in 2025-26, 26th in the league. Yet they led the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.6 percent and finished second in overall field goal percentage at 49.6 percent. When they actually shot, they burned teams. They just didn’t shoot enough.

Murray sits at the heart of that dilemma.

Per-36-minute projections for 2026-27, translated into per-game numbers at his usual 35.4 minutes, point to a slight dip in his scoring volume. With DeMar DeRozan arriving as another proven bucket-getter, Murray is expected to slide back a notch as a pure scorer.

The numbers tell the story. From a career-best 25.4 points per game on 18.1 field-goal attempts, he’s projected to land at 23.7 points on 17.5 shots. That’s not a star shrinking. That’s a star reshaping.

Denver isn’t losing offense there; it’s redistributing it. DeRozan brings a career average of 21.1 points per game from his Sacramento stint, giving the Nuggets another player who can manufacture points in the half court and ease the constant strain on Murray and Jokic.

The pressure finally shifts from “Murray must score” to “Murray must choose when to score.”

Defensive edges and elite efficiency

The projections don’t just paint Murray as a scorer with a slightly lighter load. They point to a guard rounding out the other corners of his game.

On the glass, he’s expected to post 4.3 rebounds per night, which would be the second-best mark of his career. At the rim, he’s forecast to average 0.5 blocks, also a projected career second-best. Those aren’t gaudy numbers, but for a point guard they matter, especially in a system that leans on Jokic to vacuum up almost everything.

The more intriguing bump comes in the passing lanes. Murray’s knack for timing and anticipation should surface again, with projections putting him back at 1.1 steals per game. For a Denver defense that can look vulnerable at the point of attack, that kind of disruptive edge is no luxury. It’s a necessity.

Where he truly separates himself, though, is in efficiency.

Murray is projected to maintain All-NBA caliber shooting splits. From deep, he’s expected to hit 42.1 percent of his threes, which would be the third-best mark of his career and a critical piece in keeping Denver near the top of the league’s three-point charts. Overall, he’s slated to shoot 47.9 percent from the field, again the third-highest projected figure of his career.

So even if the raw scoring dips slightly, the quality of each possession he uses stays elite. On a team with Jokic orchestrating and DeRozan slicing into midrange gaps, that kind of efficiency from the perimeter is the connective tissue of a title offense.

From scorer to full-time conductor

Where Murray’s leap may be most visible isn’t in points. It’s in control.

Denver has often leaned on Jokic as the primary playmaker, a 7-foot point center who sees the game two beats ahead of everyone else. That reliance has also made them predictable. When everything runs through one man, the playoff game plan writes itself: throw bodies at Jokic, shrink the floor, dare someone else to organize the attack.

This is where Murray’s evolution becomes central to the Nuggets’ ceiling.

Projections have him at 6.7 assists per game in 2026-27, which would be the second-highest average of his career. He just posted a personal-best 7.1 assists in 2025-26, and that number is hardly out of reach again. With DeRozan, Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun spacing the floor and cutting hard, the opportunities will be there.

If those teammates convert at their expected efficiency, Murray has a clear path to matching or surpassing that 7.1 mark. Not as a makeshift point guard, but as a full-time conductor alongside Jokic.

That matters even more when you look behind him on the depth chart. Tyus Jones, brought in as the secondary point guard, is coming off a season with just 2.4 assists per game. He has shown he can run an offense — his 7.3-assist campaign with the 2023-24 Washington Wizards proved that — but he’ll need time to adjust to Denver’s system and Jokic’s unique rhythm.

Until he does, the burden of organization falls squarely on Murray. If he embraces that, the Nuggets become far harder to solve.

The ghost that won’t leave: turnovers

There is, however, one number that refuses to cooperate with the narrative of a fully polished star.

Turnovers.

High-usage guards who score and create often live with them. Murray is no exception. Across nine seasons, he hasn’t fully shaken that flaw, and even as he climbed to the All-NBA Third Team in 2025-26, the same issue lingered.

The projections don’t offer much comfort. Murray is expected to average 2.3 turnovers per game in 2026-27, a career high and well above the league average of 1.7 for point guards. If that holds, it would mark the third time in nine seasons that he sets a new personal worst in that category.

Context matters: he’s often the primary scorer, frequently the main creator, and sometimes the lone offensive engine when Jokic sits. Usage brings risk. But in tight playoff games, those empty possessions are the cracks opponents pry open.

Denver will hope that Jones’ presence, and the additional playmaking load he can absorb once settled, pulls that number back down. If Murray can trim even a fraction off those projected giveaways while maintaining his aggression, the Nuggets’ title hopes look a lot sturdier.

Can this version of Murray be All-NBA again?

Strip away the noise, and the question hanging over Denver is simple: can Jamal Murray play his way back onto an All-NBA team in 2026-27?

The statistical roadmap says yes. A 23.7-point scorer on elite efficiency, pushing near seven assists, rebounding well for his position, defending passing lanes, and anchoring one of the league’s best offenses alongside Jokic and DeRozan — that profile belongs in the All-NBA conversation.

But there’s a catch.

He has to pair that production with cleaner decision-making. He has to prove he can guide Denver through a Western Conference packed with new contenders while tightening up the one area of his game that keeps biting back.

If he does, the Nuggets’ window doesn’t just stay open. It stretches a little wider, with Murray not just riding Jokic’s prime, but extending it.