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Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Hull City player celebrating a goal
Premier League

Hull City welcome Aston Villa to the MKM Stadium on 5 September 2026 in Premier League Regular Season – 3, with the hosts looking to extend a perfect start and the visitors desperate to stop an early-season slide. With Hull flying high in 3rd and Villa languishing in 19th, this clash already carries weight at both ends of the table.

Hull have taken 6 points from 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding none, and early Premier League predictions for this fixture understandably tilt towards the Tigers maintaining momentum at home. Aston Villa, by contrast, have lost both opening games, failed to score, and shipped 5 goals – a worrying trend for a side expected to push higher up the table.

Set at the MKM Stadium and refereed by Michael Oliver, this match offers a compelling betting angle: form and underlying stats point towards Hull City, while the market still rates Aston Villa as favourites. That tension between data and odds will be central to any serious Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction and betting strategy.

Hull City vs Aston Villa Key Stats

  • Hull City are 3rd in the Premier League with 6 points from 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 0.
  • The last meeting at Villa Park on 19 January 2019 in the Championship finished Aston Villa 2-2 Hull City.
  • Across 2 league matches this season, Hull City have kept 2 clean sheets and average 1.5 goals scored per game.

Hull City vs Aston Villa — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 3 vs 19
  • Points: 6 vs 0
  • Goals For: 3 vs 0
  • Goals Against: 0 vs 5
  • Clean Sheets: Hull City 2; Aston Villa 0 (2026 Premier League statistics)

After two rounds, Hull City sit 3rd with a perfect record: 2 wins from 2, a +3 goal difference, and no goals conceded. They have won once at home (2-0) and once away (1-0), suggesting early solidity in a 5-4-1 structure that has so far controlled both penalty areas.

Aston Villa, by contrast, are 19th with 0 points and a -5 goal difference. They have lost one home match 0-1 and one away match 0-4, failing to score in either. Over these 2 games they average 0.0 goals for and 2.5 against, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. On current evidence, this is a meeting between one of the league’s form sides and one of its early strugglers.

Hull City vs Aston Villa Key Matchups

L. Millar vs J. McGinn

Liam Millar has been Hull City’s standout attacking contributor so far. In 2 Premier League appearances (50 minutes), he has scored 1 goal from 3 shots (1 on target), with a solid 7.2 rating. Despite being used from the bench (2 substitute appearances), he has already provided a decisive edge in the final third, adding 10 passes at 60% accuracy and contributing defensively with 1 tackle and 1 block.

John McGinn is Aston Villa’s key midfield presence, even if his start has been difficult. Across 2 appearances and 182 minutes, he has taken 3 shots, created 1 key pass and completed 42 passes at 61% accuracy. Defensively, he has 2 tackles and 2 interceptions, and in duels he has contested 23, winning 10. However, discipline is an issue: 2 yellow cards already. The duel between Millar’s direct running and McGinn’s combative midfield work could be pivotal in deciding who controls territory and momentum.

L. Coyle vs Joã​o Gomes

Lewie Coyle has been a reliable defensive presence for Hull. In 2 appearances (115 minutes) he has a 7.05 rating, with 32 passes at 75% accuracy, 1 tackle, 1 interception, and 11 duels contested, winning 7. He has also delivered 1 key pass going forward and drawn 4 fouls, underlining his value both defensively and in build-up.

Joã​o Gomes, meanwhile, has had a turbulent start for Villa. In his single appearance (40 minutes), he recorded 14 passes at 100% accuracy, 4 tackles, and 11 duels with 6 won – impressive ball-winning numbers. But his outing was overshadowed by disciplinary trouble: 1 yellow card and 1 red card. If he features here, his aggression against Coyle’s composure on Hull’s right side will be a crucial battleground, especially in transitions.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have met regularly over the last decade across the Premier League and Championship, often in tight, low-margin contests. Recent history shows a mix of draws and narrow wins on both sides.

  • 19 January 2019: Aston Villa 2-2 Hull City (Championship)
  • 6 August 2018: Hull City 1-3 Aston Villa (Championship)
  • 31 March 2018: Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa (Championship)
  • 5 August 2017: Aston Villa 1-1 Hull City (Championship)
  • 10 February 2015: Hull City 2-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)

Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction

Stats suggest this game tilts towards Hull City, despite the betting market installing Aston Villa as favourites. Hull come in with 2 wins from 2, 3 goals scored and none conceded, and a clear identity in a 5-4-1 setup that has already produced a 2-0 home win. Their comparison indices are emphatic: 100 in form, attack, and defense, and a Poisson index of 100 vs 0, underlining their superiority over a tiny early sample.

Aston Villa, on the other hand, have 2 defeats, 0 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their last-five form shows 0 in attack and 72 in defense, reflecting a side that is struggling to create while also being exposed at the back. The goal distribution against them – a significant share conceded between minutes 16–60 – suggests vulnerability once opponents settle into the game.

The prediction model gives Hull City a 45% chance of winning, a 45% chance of a draw, and just a 10% chance of an Aston Villa victory. With Hull yet to concede and Villa yet to score, a tight, low-scoring home win or a cautious draw looks most likely. Given Hull’s early defensive solidity and Villa’s lack of cutting edge, the edge goes to the hosts.

Predicted Score: Hull City 1-0 Aston Villa

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City have started the 2026 Premier League campaign with back-to-back wins. They have scored 3 goals across 2 matches (averaging 1.5 per game) and have yet to concede. Their biggest home win so far is 2-0, and away from home they have also kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 victory. The form line is perfect and built on defensive control and efficiency in front of goal.

Aston Villa Recent Form

Aston Villa’s recent form is concerning. Two matches have brought two defeats, with 0 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they lost 0-1; away they were beaten 4-0. They have failed to score in both fixtures and have not kept a clean sheet. The current streak is 2 straight losses, and their early numbers point to a side low on confidence at both ends of the pitch.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, S. Ajayi, J. Egan, R. Giles, M. Targett; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, A. Ömür, L. Millar; Forwards: O. McBurnie.

Hull have consistently used a 5-4-1 shape in their opening fixtures, according to their tactical statistics, and the squad composition supports a back five with strong full-back options like L. Coyle and M. Targett. In midfield, the presence of H. Morita and E. Matazo offers balance, while A. Ömür and L. Millar provide creativity and penetration from wide or advanced roles. Up front, a focal striker such as O. McBurnie fits the profile of a lone forward in this system. With no injuries reported, Hull can field a settled, physically strong XI that prioritises structure and compactness.

Aston Villa Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Bizot; Defenders: M. Cash, V. Lindelöf, Pau Torres, I. Maatsen; Midfielders: B. Kamara, L. Goretzka, J. McGinn; Forwards: L. Bailey, A. Garnacho, T. Abraham.

Aston Villa have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 across their opening matches, and the squad list suggests a similar approach here. A back four anchored by V. Lindelöf and Pau Torres, with attacking full-backs M. Cash and I. Maatsen, offers both defensive experience and width. In midfield, B. Kamara and L. Goretzka provide a strong double pivot, while J. McGinn can operate as the advanced midfielder linking play. The attacking trio of L. Bailey, A. Garnacho and T. Abraham gives Villa pace and goal threat, though they must be more clinical than in their first two outings. Discipline from Joã​o Gomes will be a consideration after his red card, so he may be used more cautiously.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Aston Villa Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Hull City:

  • None reported.

Aston Villa:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Hull City vs Aston Villa

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). With Hull given a 45% chance to win and a 45% chance of a draw, and Aston Villa only 10%, siding against the away win looks logical. The market, however, prices Aston Villa as favourites at around 1.83–1.94 (implied 51.5–54.6%), while Hull are out at roughly 3.62–4.22 (23.7–27.6%) with the draw at 3.26–3.80 (26.3–30.7%). Using these odds, backing Hull not to lose via Double Chance provides a pragmatic way to align with the prediction percentages while respecting the market’s Villa bias.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Hull average 1.5 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Aston Villa average 0 scored and 2.5 conceded, but a chunk of that came in a single heavy away defeat. Hull’s 5-4-1 and Villa’s early attacking struggles point towards a tight encounter. Markets typically offer Under/Over 2.5 lines alongside the Match Winner prices; with Hull’s two matches both finishing under 2.5, the data leans towards a low-scoring contest.
  • Value Tip: Hull City to Score First. Hull have scored in both of their matches and have yet to concede, while Villa have failed to score in either game and often concede after the opening quarter-hour. With L. Millar already on the scoresheet and Hull’s attack index at 100 against Villa’s 0, backing Hull to open the scoring taps into their early sharpness and Villa’s slow starts. Any “Team to Score First” market priced in line with Hull’s underdog status could offer attractive value relative to their 45% home-win probability.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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