Everton Faces Arsenal: A Challenge with History Against Them

Everton head to the Emirates on Saturday knowing exactly what awaits them: Arsenal, away, with history and the numbers stacked firmly against them.

They have not won a league game there since April 2021. For a club talking openly about Europe, that’s the sort of statistic that gnaws away in the background.

Moyes demands a reaction

David Moyes will arrive in north London with his mood sharpened by last weekend. The 2-0 defeat to Chelsea was Everton’s first loss of the Premier League season, and it stung. The performance fell short, the edge wasn’t there, and Moyes is not a manager who tolerates that for long.

He will want a response. A harder-running, more aggressive Everton. One that makes Arsenal feel the game.

The backdrop at Goodison is noisy enough. The Friedkin Group’s intention to sell the club has stirred uncertainty at precisely the moment the January window starts to loom into view. Moyes has tried to shut that out, publicly and privately, and keep the dressing room locked on the pitch rather than the boardroom.

It does not get any easier, though. The “task at hand” he keeps referring to is a trip to the defending Premier League champions, a side that punished Everton late in this fixture last season.

Late drama, lingering scars

Mikel Arteta’s team needed patience to win this game at the Emirates last year. They broke Everton late, with Viktor Gyokeres striking before teenager Max Dowman added a stoppage-time goal that will live long in Arsenal folklore.

That night was remembered for more than the scoreline. Thierno Barry’s name was dragged into controversy after an altercation involving his friends and travelling Everton supporters. The fallout hung over him for a spell, yet he has since rebuilt his standing in L3 and turned the mood back in his favour.

On the pitch, though, Everton know the pattern. They will likely spend long spells without the ball, waiting for their chance. When it comes, they will need their striker to be ruthless. They cannot afford to pass up the few clear sights of goal they’re likely to get.

Supercomputer says Arsenal

The cold numbers do not flatter Everton.

Opta’s supercomputer makes Arsenal overwhelming favourites with a 69.5 per cent chance of victory. Everton are given just a 13.4 per cent shot at all three points, with the draw rated at 17.1 per cent.

Moyes would take that point now if you offered it to him. Gladly. Because he knows what a result here would mean for their European ambitions. Teams that finish in the European places steal points from grounds like the Emirates, even when the odds say they shouldn’t.

Saka scare hands Everton a glimmer

If Everton needed any encouragement, it arrived from Munich on Wednesday night.

Arsenal drew 2-2 away to Bayern in the Champions League, a demanding game that forced Arteta to lean on his squad depth. He can rotate and still send out a strong side, and Everton will be under no illusions about that. But the night came with a worrying twist for the home team.

Bukayo Saka, arguably Arsenal’s standout player, pulled up with a quad problem and had to leave the pitch after just 10 minutes. Reports say he will undergo a scan, with a grade 1 quad injury considered likely. That would rule him out for up to two weeks. A grade 2 issue is also feared, which could sideline the right-winger until around Christmas.

Everton know exactly what Saka can do to them. He has caused them serious problems in recent meetings, dragging defenders out of position and punishing every lapse. If he is missing, they will not pretend they are disappointed.

They will be punching the air quietly, knowing the task is still huge, but just that fraction less daunting.